Truth and kindliness (was Re: DWJ in Israeli newspaper)

Roger Burton West roger at firedrake.org
Tue Feb 17 04:57:04 EST 2004


On Tue, Feb 17, 2004 at 11:24:59AM +1100, Sally Odgers wrote:

>My (very unpopular <g>) view on The Recession We Had to Have was that if
>everyone had shut up about it we wouldn't have had it. Being Told there was
>a Recession made people act as if there were... and lo! There was!

Some years ago, _The Economist_ noted that the best _leading_ indicator
of a recession - most indicators in economics are trailing, i.e. you get
the numbers anywhere between three and twelve months after the things
has happened - was the frequency of appearance of the word "recession"
in newspapers.

This is of course a self-reinforcing prophecy.

Roger
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